Russian offshore oil exports in March 2024 increased by 5% compared to last year's March to almost 3.8 million barrels per day (bpd), according to Kpler data. This is a record figure since May 2023, when shipments abroad exceeded 3.9 million b/d. In January and February, Russia exported 3.5 million b/d and 3.3 million b/d by tankers, respectively, Kommersant reports.
In the second quarter of 2024, Russia will be forced to reduce oil production (excluding condensate) and exports within the framework of an agreement with OPEC+. Oil production in June should decrease to 9 million b/d, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said. Condensate production in the Russian Federation is approximately 1.4 million barrels per day. In early March, the Cabinet of Ministers of the Russian Federation pledged to voluntarily reduce the production and export of oil and petroleum products in the second quarter by 471 thousand b/d as part of "precautionary measures taken by OPEC+ countries in order to maintain stability and balance of oil markets." So, in April, the Russian Federation wants to reduce production by 350 thousand tons. b/d, exports – by 121 thousand b/d, in May – by 400 thousand b/d and 71 thousand b/d; in June, it will only reduce production by 471 thousand b/d. According to OPEC estimates, oil and condensate production in Russia will decrease by 1.6% in 2024, to 10.75 million b/d. Against the background of OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, oil prices have reached the level of $90 per barrel of Brent in the last week.
